A few months back, I predicted the Oscar winners here on the Flyer. I did surprisingly well. I think I did like 22 for 24 or something like that. My winning rate for the Emmys, however, has never been that high. There are a few reasons for that.
For starters, my television tastes are a bit different than the average Academy member. Also, I am not very good at seeing the merits of giving the same person fifteen Emmys (looking at you Helen Hunt, Doris Roberts, and Allison Janney).
The major reason I have issues with predicting winners, though, is the way they’re chosen. Essentially, actors and shows are nominated by a mixture of jury and popular vote. However, once nominated, actors get to submit a single episode that represents their best work from the season. Those episodes are watched by panels until a winner is chosen. Therefore, if an actor has one great episode in an otherwise awful season (that would be you James Spader) then they can win the secret ballot. Therefore, trying to pick a winner can be very difficult since we don’t always know what voters are looking for. As a side note, if a show is nominated, they get to submit a half dozen of their season’s finest offerings for consideration, as opposed to actors only getting to submit one episode.
Best Drama Series
Nominees: “Breaking Bad”, “Dexter”, “The Good Wife”, “Mad Men”, “Lost”, “True Blood”
Okay, without hurting the feelings of you die-hard True Blooder’s, that campy HBO show doesn’t have much of a chance. There could be a case made for the remainder of the nominees, though.
“Lost” had a critically praised final season. Of course, shows rarely win in their final season.
“Dexter” had its best season yet, thanks to John Lithgow. Lithgow will surely win Best Guest Actor, which will probably be the show’s reward.
“Breaking Bad” is loved by the Academy and could win this. Lead actor nominee Bryan Cranston has won best actor for two years running.
However, I think the race will come down to “Mad Men” and “The Good Wife.” My personal favorite is “Mad Men” and it is the two-time defending champion. I think that it will probably repeat, but the Academy loves a splashy network drama, and “The Good Wife” fits that bill.
Best Comedy Series
Nominees: The Office, Nurse Jackie, Modern Family, Glee, 30 Rock, Curb Your Enthusiasm
“The Office” and “Curb Your Enthusiasm” are in this lineup based on a few strong episodes. However, they won’t win. “Nurse Jackie” is a surprise nominee and will likely win Best Actress for Edie Falco. The race essentially comes down to the other three nominees. “30 Rock” is the defending three-time champ. However, I think this year it has its strongest competition ever. Therefore, I see a new champion.
Although “Glee” got the most nominations, I have a feeling that the Academy won’t see it as a “true” comedy. It is a shame that these dramedy-type shows rarely win, because they just don’t seem to fit in either category. I predict that this year’s winner will and should be “Modern Family.” It was simply the best show on television this past season, and I think the academy will show this freshman hit, some love.
Best Drama Acting
Actor: Hugh Laurie – “House”, Kyle Chandler – “Friday Night Lights”, Michael C. Hall – “Dexter”, Jon Hamm – “Mad Men”, Bryan Cranston – “Breaking Bad”, Matthew Fox – “Lost”
Actress: Glenn Close – “Damages”, Connie Britton “Friday Night Lights”, Kyra Sedgwick – “The Closer”, Mariska Hargitay – “Law and Order: SVU”, January Jones – “Mad Men”, Julianna Margulies – “The Good Wife”
There are lots of previous winners and nominees nominated this year in the lead drama categories. However, there is also some fresh blood from established shows that received some much needed Emmy love, like Chandler, Fox, Britton, and the suburb Jones. The races this year, though, will probably go to previous Emmy winners. I suspect that Cranston will win his third Emmy in a row for “Breaking Bad.” He could suffer a loss to Hall, Laurie, or even Fox, but I think he has it fairly locked up.
On the actress side, Close has dominated this category for the past few years, but I just don’t see it this time. Britton or Jones have an outside chance. Margulies (a previous winner for “ER”) will probably win this in a landslide. She is outstanding and is well liked. Plus, she already won the SAG and Golden Globe, earlier this year.
Supporting Actor: Michael Emerson – “Lost”, Aaron Paul – “Breaking Bad”, Andre Braugher – “Men of a Certain Age”, Terry O’Quinn – “Lost”, John Slattery – “Mad Men”, Martin Short – “Damages”
Supporting Actress: Rose Byrne – “Damages”, Sharon Gless – “Burn Notice”, Elisabeth Moss – “Mad Men”, Christine Baranski – “The Good Wife”, Christina Hendricks – “Mad Men”, Archie Panjabi – “The Good Wife”
I would love nothing more than to see new and deserved winners in these categories like Paul, Slattery, and Hendricks. I think they each have a chance. However, I see veterans winning these awards AGAIN. Previous winners Emerson and O’Quinn each have a great shot, but I have a feeling that the panel will reward previous Emmy winner Andre Braugher for his little seen performance on the TBS show “Men of a Certain Age.”
Like I said, I think Hendricks has an outstanding chance and should win this in a cake walk. The Academy loves its veteran actresses, though, so I see this going to previous winners Baranski or Gless. Although they both won for other shows, I think they each have outstanding chances this year. I hope I am wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see one of them picking it up.
Best Comedy Acting
Actor: Alec Baldwin – “30 Rock”, Steve Carrell – “The Office”, Larry David – “Curb your Enthusiasm”, Matthew Morrison – “Glee”, Jim Parsons “Big Bang Theory”, Tony Shaloub – “Monk”
Actress: Tina Fey – “30 Rock”, Julia Louis-Dreyfus – “The New Adventures of Old Christine”, Toni Collette – “The United States of Tara”, Edie Falco – “Nurse Jackie”, Amy Poehler – “Parks and Recreation”, Lea Michele – “Glee”
I love seeing new and deserving names on this list like Poehler, Michele, and Morrison. However, they don’t have much of a shot. For actor, Baldwin has won this for the past few seasons. He could repeat, but I think this will come down to Parsons (should win) and Shaloub (probably will win in his final season, bringing his total to four (CRAZY) Emmy wins).
Fey and Collette are the past two winners of this category which hasn’t had a repeat winner in years. I think both of those ladies could repeat. Smart money, though, is on the three-time Emmy winner list (“The Sopranos”) Edie Falco. If she wins this category, she will join Carroll O’Connor (“In the Heat of the Night” and “All in the Family”) as the only other actor to win in lead acting in both a comedy and a drama.
Supporting Actor: Neil Patrick Harris – “How I met your Mother”, Jon Cryer – “Two and a Half Men”, Chris Colfer – “Glee”, Ty Burrell – “Modern Family”, Jesse Tyler Ferguson – “Modern Family”, and Eric Stonestreet – “Modern Family”
Supporting Actress: Kristen Wiig – “Saturday Night Live”, Holland Taylor – “Two and a Half Men”, Jane Krakowski – “30 Rock”, Jane Lynch – “Glee”, Sofia Vergara – “Modern Family” and Julie Bowen – “Modern Family”
First off, if previous winners Cryer or Taylor win, I will scream so loud that people in Rogers will hear me. It could happen, but PLEASE GOD, NO!! Wiig, Harris, and Krakowski are all good on their respective shows. However, it would be completely unfair to reward them over the outstanding supporting players on “Glee” and “Modern Family.”
Speaking of “Family”, I am thrilled with all this “Modern Family” actor love. I wish that Ed O’Neil would have been nominated, but five actors is pretty damn good. I think that supporting actor boils down to Colfer (outstanding in a dramatic role), Burrell (consistently outstanding through the season), and Stonestreet (laugh out loud). If pressed, I would like to see Stonestreet win this, but I wouldn’t be too sad with any of the three listed actors.
Wiig is great on “SNL” and Krakowski is consistently funny on “30 Rock.” Both are probably overdue. However, they shouldn’t have this statue in their hand, this year. Taylor is a great actress, but this is pointless filler. That leaves three nominees. Vargara and Bowen are outstanding on “Modern Family” and I think Bowen has an outside chance for her episode selection (where she gets her trench coat caught in an escalator…with nothing underneath). However, this category must go to Jane Lynch. She was the actor of the season and has been everywhere. Her Sue Sylvester is iconic and must be rewarded. If she doesn’t win, it will be yet another laughable mistake that the Academy will have to explain. Her Madonna-themed submission is easily the best of the bunch.
Wayne Bell is a regular contributor for the Fayetteville Flyer. He moved to Fayetteville in 2003 for his Master’s Degree and you can almost always catch him at Little Bread Co. or Hammontree’s. For more of Wayne’s contributions, visit his author page.