Who likes numbers? I mean, aside from mathematicians, scientists and financial planners? To some, numbers mean it’s time to take a nap. To others, it’s a dose of reality that’s hard to escape.
In this case, the numbers could represent a chair, or a seat (maybe even one of the hot variety). It’s the same seat that Arkansas Razorbacks head basketball coach John Pelphrey sits upon right now. Roughly 50% of Arkansas fans say that Coach Pelphrey should be fired. The other 50% say he should remain coach. Regardless of the argument, pro OR con, nearly 100% of fans have a tendency to get emotionally charged when debating the subject.
The heated nature of said conversations makes sense. Especially knowing that ALL Arkansas fans want to see the Razorbacks getting back to the higher level of competition and success that was experienced under Nolan Richardson in the 1990s. You know, the days when > 20 wins and post-season play were expected and not a question mark.
The most rudimentary of numbers show us that Coach Pelphrey does have an improving record over the past three seasons – 14-16 in 2008-09, 14-18 in 2009-10 and currently 18-12 this season. But the numbers also show that the caliber of competition on Arkansas’ schedule (and in the SEC) hasn’t been that great over the past three seasons.
A little digging around yielded more interesting numbers regarding John Pelphrey’s experience as head coach – both at South Alabama and Arkansas.
Academic Progress Going Down, then Up
It had been widely reported that Arkansas’ Academic Progress Rates (APR) have been in the tank during Pelphrey’s tenure and that Arkansas was close to losing scholarships due to the matter.
A team aims for a yearly benchmark score of 925 (out of 1000) – this keeps the NCAA off the Athletic Program’s back and ensures that all available scholarships are kept for student athletes. If your four-year rolling score (the average of the previous four years’ scores) goes down below 925, you risk losing scholarships.
Arkansas’ current four-year rolling score is 886, well-short of the benchmark. But since Arkansas scored a single-year score of 933 last year, the NCAA is currently not taking action.
Players maintaining a good GPA bodes well for a University’s APR. Players leaving a program generally don’t, especially if that student isn’t in good academic standing before he/she leaves.
With last year’s 933, it appears that Arkansas might be on the cusp of recovery. Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. Historically-speaking, Coach Pelphrey’s teams haven’t faired so well in the APR department:
| Year | Single-Year APR |
|---|---|
| 2003-04 (South Alabama) | 796 |
| 2004-05 (South Alabama) | 923 |
| 2005-06 (South Alabama) | 889 |
| 2006-07 (South Alabama) | 904 |
| 2006-07 (Arkansas) | 942 |
| 2007-08 (Arkansas) | 755 |
| 2008-09 (Arkansas) | 933 |
* It should be noted that Coach Stan Heath’s numbers at Arkansas were 1000 (2003-04), 958 (2004-05) and 915 (2005-06).
Player Suspensions and Players Leaving Program
Over the course of four seasons at Arkansas, John Plephrey has seen 32 kids dress for basketball games. Of those 32 players, 16 of them have been suspended at one time, or another, under Pelphrey’s tenure.
That’s half of the players. Fifty percent.
There are things worse than suspensions, like players leaving the program early. Under Pelphrey’s rule (whether they were asked to leave the team or left voluntarily), seven players have left Arkansas prior to graduating:
- Patrick Beverly
- Andre Clark
- Courtney Fortson
- Jason Henry
- Montrell McDonald
- Brandon Moore
- Nate Rakestraw
One might ask why these players left, or were asked to leave? If Coach Pelphrey recruited them (with the exception of Beverly), was there not enough vetting done to make sure they were good fits with his coaching style? Sure kids and coaches will always be at odds and most teams will experience some turnover here and there. But seven kids in four seasons? And … FIVE kids from ONE recruiting class?
Aside from those players who left, you have to wonder about the rumors of Rotnei Clarke almost leaving the program a year ago and the recent Marshawn Powell “no comment” remark on his relationship with Coach Pelphrey. Not to mention Jemal Farmer’s random leave of absence this season.
More troubling is this post from last summer regarding the struggles that South Alabama has faced with their APR and subsequent loss of scholarships. It reports that during Pelphrey’s final three seasons at South Alabama, 10 players left the program. Additionally, twice under Pelphrey’s watch, South Alabama was faced with scholarship reductions. APR concerns anyone?
And some quick math will tell you that in 3 years at South Alabama and 4 years at Arkansas, 17 players have left the program that John Pelphrey has been head coach at. Is that your typical “coaches and players at odds” sort of thing?
Pelphrey’s Teams at South Alabama
A lot of believers will look at Coach Pelphrey’s success at South Alabama as reason to retain him for another year. The statistics show that while Pelphrey started off slow, he eventually built up a team that went to the NCAA Tournament and the NIT:
| 2002-03 | 2003-04 | 2004-05 | 2005-06 | 2006-07 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 14-14 | 12-16 | 10-18 | 24-7 | 20-12 |
| Conf Record | 7-8 (3rd in West) |
6-9 (4th in West) |
6-9 (4th in West) |
12-3 (1st in West) |
13-5 (1st in East) |
| Post-season | n/a | n/a | n/a | NCAA First Round (lost to Florida) | NIT First Round (lost to Syracuse) |
| RPI | n/a | 191 | 276 | 67 | 131 |
| SOS | n/a | 123 | 123 | 191 | 208 |
| Conf RPI | n/a | 17 | 12 | 18 | 20 |
| Conf SOS | n/a | 18 | 12 | 16 | 19 |
| PPG (Nat’l rank) |
73.0 (98) | 65.9 (246) | 62.3 (289) | 73.6 (72) | 71.3 (125) |
| RPG (Nat’l rank) |
31.5 (298) | 32.1 (293) | 32.0 (286) | 33.8 (218) | 34.4 (146) |
| APG (Nat’l rank) |
12.9 (214) | 11.2 (295) | 11.0 (307) | 14.1 (126) | 13.8 (137) |
| FG% (Nat’l rank) |
44.4 (144) | 41.8 (246) | 41.6 (261) | 45.3 (95) | 43.9 (177) |
Here’s the thing, if you’re playing in a conference that ranks 18th in Conference RPI and your Strength of Schedule is 191st, you would sincerely hope that you could at least win the conference and make the NCAA Tournament. The statistics also show that Pelphrey’s successful teams also benefitted from playing weak non-confrence AND conference schedules. Additionally, no team under Pelphrey at South Alabama ranked in the top 125 in Rebounds Per Game or Assists Per Game. Sound familiar?
Pelphrey’s Teams at Arkansas
Most of us are aware of what Coach Pelphrey has done, or hasn’t done, with his time at Arkansas. His first season, with Stan Heath’s recruits, was easily Pelphrey’s best when he guided the team into the NCAA Tournament (and also scored our first tourney victory dating back to the 1999-2000 season). Since then, Coach Pelphrey’s teams have struggled to find an identity and consistency.
| 2007-08 | 2008-09 | 2009-10 | 2010-11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Record | 23-12 | 14-16 | 14-18 | 18-12 |
| Conf Record | 9-7 (2nd in West) |
2-14 (6th in West) |
7-9 (3rd in West) |
7-9 (4th in West) |
| Post-season | NCAA Second Round (beat Indiana, lost to North Carolina) | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| RPI | 26 | 147 | 159 | 120 |
| SOS | 10 | 70 | 45 | 112 |
| Conf RPI | 3 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| Conf SOS | 4 | 6 | 3 | 5 |
| PPG (Nat’l rank) |
74.1 (73) | 74.6 (61) | 74.7 (54) | 70.8 (118) |
| RPG (Nat’l rank) |
36.4 (116) | 37.6 (68) | 34.5 (207) | 34.5 (195) |
| APG (Nat’l rank) |
14.4 (100) | 13.0 (161) | 13.8 (108) | 12.0 (240) |
| FG% (Nat’l rank) |
.468 (46) | .438 (159) | .446 (105) | .435 (175) |
Basically, the statistics show that our RPI has risen and fallen fairly consistently with our SOS. The harder the schedule has been, the worse our RPI. And only once has any of Pelphrey’s Razorback teams finished in the top 100 in Rebounds or Assists per game.
Player Development at Arkansas
The last area to look at is how Coach Pelphrey has developed his players over his time at Arkansas. The only players we can look at are the ones that have played more than one season for Pelphrey (special exceptions for Beverly, Michael Washington and Stefan Welsh who played one season under Stan Heath):
| Player | Under Pelphrey | Averages | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | ||
| Michael Washington (Not recruited by CJP) |
Year One (under Heath) |
8.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Year Two | 13.4 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | |
| Year Three | 30.0 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | |
| Year Four | 25.3 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.8 | |
| Stefan Welsh (Not recruited by CJP) |
Year One (under Heath) |
10.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
| Year Two | 19.3 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 1.9 | |
| Year Three | 29.5 | 11.5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 2.2 | |
| Year Four | 19.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.7 | |
| Marcus Britt | Year One | 6.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
| Year Two | 18.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 | |
| Year Three | 20.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | |
| Year Four | 18.8 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 1.1 | |
| Player | Under Pelphrey | Averages | ||||||
| MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | ||
| Michael Sanchez | Year One | 23.3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Year Two | 14.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.8 | |
| Year Three | 13.5 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.2 | |
| Rotnei Clarke | Year One | 31.5 | 12.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Year Two | 34.1 | 15.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | |
| Year Three | 31.6 | 15.1 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | |
| Player | Under Pelphrey | Averages | ||||||
| MIN | PPG | RPG | APG | SPG | BPG | TPG | ||
| Patrick Beverly (Not recruited by CJP) |
Year One (under Heath) |
34.4 | 13.9 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.0 |
| Year Two | 33.8 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 2.0 | |
| Courtney Fortson | Year One | 32.8 | 14.8 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 4.4 |
| Year Two | 33.3 | 17.9 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 5.1 | |
| Marshawn Powell | Year One | 31.0 | 14.9 | 6.7 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Year Two | 22.6 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.4 | |
| Glenn Bryant | Year One | 9.1 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Year Two | 13.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | |
| Jemal Farmer | Year One | 17.8 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Year Two | 9.8 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.9 | |
| Julysses Nobles | Year One | 18.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 1.8 |
| Year Two | 24.8 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 2.5 | |
| Delvon Johnson | Year One | 13.3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Year Two | 28.3 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 | |
Those numbers aren’t too compelling, are they? In most cases, when the numbers are moving up positively, it’s because of a player’s increased playing time/role on the team. For the most part, I’m not seeing any steady marked improvement or notion that Pelphrey can develop players.
So there you have it, John Pelphrey by the numbers. Enough with the arguments of “he should get to coach the kids he recruited,” because you could say that about ANY coach that’s fired from their job. Enough with the it takes at least four years to turn a program around, because other coaches have done it in less time. Let’s strictly talk numbers. Based on what you see here, has Pelphrey earned the right for another year at Arkansas?
If you ask me, based on the numbers, I’d say Coach Pelphrey has around a 7% chance of staying on that hot seat for one more year.
Statistics and figures found at:
Big kudos, Seth. This is real reporting. And based on these numbers… Pel clearly has to go. In his fourth year, he’s playing kids that he went out and signed. His record the past three years is 46-46, and I have a strong suspicion that after Thursday it will be 46-47.
Great work. The numbers kinda speak to the story, do they not?
Thanks IO. The numbers are speaking louder than words right now. Question being, is anyone listening?
The fans should be fired. They have no appreciation for the facilities or the program. maybe if we went back to playing in a dirt filled areana and re-hired lanny Van Emman you would be satisfied.
If our football coach had gone 8-4 (with Houston Nutt’s seniors of course!), 5-7, 5-7, and 7-5 …
… and the SEC were really the PAC10/12
… should he be fired?
.. poop ..
if pelphrey gets the boot, who can we get to replace him?
Here’s a list of current vacancies:
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=6171342
A possible replacement could come from that list. Otherwise we’d probably look to hire away from another program. The only name people are really talking about right now is Mike Anderson.
My guess is that IF a change were made, it would be done so around the Final Four.
Excellent work compiling these numbers Seth. The numbers do indeed speak for themselves. After Stan Heath’s juniors graduated, its been a rollercoaster of players leaving, and the few good players that are left getting fed up with Pel’s management style. Injuries of course slightly affect these numbers — but most of these numbers are just sad statements of what the program has become — stagnant. Does Nobles numbers go up after he grabs the starting minutes that Courtney Fortson (thankfully) had last year? Not really –he only averages 4 more points a game, and is still below double figures, and any changes in his assists/game and his turnovers/game cancel each other out. Fortson was a super talented guy, and yet his turnovers increased in his second year. Just sad for the kids that these players didnt have a coach that could improve their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses. Whats even more pitiful is that these kids are the ones who take all the blame and vitriol from the “positive” Pelphrey supporting clan.
Great post Seth…homerun. When your eyes and the stats tell you the same thing, you know there’s no doubt.
Awesome work, I can tell you definitely put a lot of time into this and like you said numbers speak louder than words…
What a WORTHLESS story… Stats… you can make them tell ANY story that you want! Seth… go to your room!
If thats true then give me some stats showing the opposite view.
The math doesn`t lie!! Great article, you can also compare attendence. The lost revenue must be stunning.
Why not hire Billy Gillispie, he will make all of our players work harder, and they will actually improve every year.
He won`t have to schedule every SWAC school to make the win-loss record look better.
Really, there are people that want to hire Billy Gillepsie? He played Arkansas for a tool. Yeah, that would be a big recruiting bonanza!
People using facts to evaluate story: 4. People pissing on facts but offering no insight: 1.
WINNING!
I just did some simple math contrasting Clark’s 1st year to his 3rd year because he played the almost the same amount of time (31.6 min to 31.5 min) in his first and third years – if you want to do his second year then knock yourself out. I then multiplied the game total by 30 (the amount of games we generally play in a year and got these totals for Clark’s whole 1st and 3rd year:
Clark’s 1st year 366 points
Clark’s 3rd year 450 points
Clark’s 1st year 57 rebounds
Clark’s 3rd year 93 rebounds
Clark’s 1st year 33 assists
Clark’s 3rd year 45 assists
Let me leave you with some words of wisdom: Figures don’t lie but liars figure.
SO, Pel should be kept because… Rotnei Clarke’s numbers improved?
Great analysis.
Well, well, well, just who’s pissing on facts now. The problem with the Hogs is not Coach Pelphrey or his players but a ridiculous and impatient Fan Base who thinks they’re better than the players, smarter than the coaches and they are being led by a fearful reactionary knee-jerk Athletic Director who’s being assisted by a clueless board of trustees who are being informed by the worst “administration butt-boy” talk radio analysts and print media I have ever listened to but other than that things are going pretty smooth and everything seems to be right on course.
Pretty sure your knowledge of playing basketball and big-time college sports is not your strong suit. One statistic is a small sample of facts. I will try and keep it simple for you. Say you are looking at baseball. Say you look at a single game for batter G. Ruth, in which he goes 0-3 with three strikeouts. You might deduce from that sample that this player is not that great. But if you look at, say, 150 games, you instead see… oh, I dunno, 50+ home runs, a top 10 batting average, RBI crown, etc. Point being, a small sample tells you very little about the big picture. Numerous data points such as those delivered by Seth indicate more of the reality, which is: Pel’s 46-47 in his past three years with his recruits. That, too, is a single statistic but taken altogether with the other indicators show it’s time for a change. I’m just guessing, but… would you also be a Houston Nutt fan?
Game, set, match. Thanks for playin’.
John Pelphrey will have a spot open for you as his towel boy at Western Kentucky, OKOFCOURSE. You may just want to act a little less eager around him so you don’t freak him out. Our A.D. knows more about what it takes to get this basketball program going again than some bitter old fogie who thinks that Arkansas fans should bend over and be happy to take it from the rest of the SEC West, because we need to give Pel 5,000 years to learn on the job.
Your boy thought he could skate by this year and he was proved otherwise. Get over it. I bet you are one of those “positive” types who would love to see Arkansas fail now by hiring yet another up-and-comer. Thank goodness Jeff Long did not make the Heath or the Pelphrey hire, and that this is in his hands instead of the hands of moronic “fans” like you. Oh, and your knowledge of basketball is zilch. Pelphrey is not cut out for D-1 coaching.
Rotnei Clarke has a ridiculous work ethic. He would improve under any coach, and indeed, he has improved IN SPITE of Pelphrey’s scizophrenic tutelage. Funny that you bring Clarke’s name up, considering he is the ONLY recruit left from his highly touted class (and even he almost left last year, along with Fortson) … yep you guessed it, pelphrey still hasn’t figured out how to even keep, let alone, improve his best players.
Pelphrey won with Heaths seniors? A year after heath couldn’t win with them? That either means that Pelphrey can coach or heath needed one more year.
Kepp firing coaches a year before they can prove themselves. You will turn Bud walton from the Basketball Palace into the Emptiest Palace in the USA.
Arkansas won just about as many games the year before in 2006-2007. The only difference is we lost to USC as a 12 seed in the NCAAT where we beat the corrupted Indiana in the NCAAT as a 9 seed the next year under Pelphrey with the same players who would naturally expect to get better. Otherwise, the two seasons were pretty close.
BTw, Steven Hill, Charles Thomas, Gary Ervin, Patrick Beverley regressed under Pelphrey. Sonny Weems scored more but everywhere else stayed virtually the same or decreased.
Heath would have also beaten Indiana.
Nice Seth, but you made at least one mistake: Pelphrey didn’t really recruit Rotnei Clarke, Stan Heath found him first and laid the groundwork.
Honestly the teams and coaches have been crap since Nolan Richardson left….ive lost faith in the program. I would love to see Tubby Smith leave Minnesota for the Hogs…..but thats not going to happen
One other thing as we watch Rotnei Clarke be unable to compete against SEC athletes: this midget is not an NCAA Div 1 player. He’s a YMCA player. Just sayin’. What a stinkbomb they’re laying tonight. But at least we won’t have to see Pel make endless player momentum-killing subs. He’s making Heath look like John Wooden.
Good riddance.
If you want to know the real reason Pelphrey was fired then read this: http://www.thoughts.com/OKOFCOURSE/blog